Welcome Bonus Expected Value Calculator
Type in your qualifying-bet odds. The calculator computes the expected dollar value of each VT welcome offer (DraftKings $200 instant, FanDuel Bet Reset Tokens up to $200/day for 5 days, Fanatics up to 1,000 FanCash match) so you can compare apples to apples.
Welcome Offer EV Calculator
EV calculations assume: bonus bets cash convert at ~73% of face value (typical for bonus bets used on ~+100 markets); ~4.55% house edge on $5 qualifying bet; ~4.55% expected loss on Fanatics' daily wagers (up to 100 FanCash/day). Fanatics pays in FanCash (redeemable for bonus bets at ~73% or Fanatics merch near face value); the ~73% conversion is applied here for a like-for-like comparison. Bonus bet conversion varies with your usage — long-shot bonus bets convert at higher rates, short-favorite usage at lower. FanDuel's figure is a per-day maximum under its 5-day Bet Reset Tokens offer (up to $200/day); the five-day total maxes at roughly five times the per-day value if you earn the full refund every day.
FanDuel: 21+ (18+ D.C., KY, WY) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA). 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How the Numbers Work
DraftKings (instant)
EV = $200 in bonus bets × ~73% conversion – $5 × 4.55% house edge ≈ $145.77. The qualifying bet's win/loss doesn't affect the bonus — it triggers either way.
FanDuel (Bet Reset Tokens, 5 days)
FanDuel now runs a Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days offer — up to $200 back per day, refunded as bonus bets, across five consecutive days. The figure above is the per-day maximum: $200 × ~73% bonus-bet conversion – $5 × 4.55% house edge ≈ $145.77 in realizable value per day. Bet on all five days and the maximum realizable value is up to roughly five times that; miss a day and you miss that day's reward.
Fanatics (FanCash daily match)
Fanatics matches 100% of your daily wager in FanCash, up to 100 FanCash/day for 10 days — up to 1,000 FanCash. If you'll wager $100/day anyway: EV = $1,000 × 73% – $0 incremental cost = $730.00.
If you wouldn't wager daily: EV = $1,000 × 73% – $1,000 × 4.55% house edge = $684.50. Even paying the full house-edge cost of $1,000 in wagers, Fanatics still has the highest EV — but you have to commit 10 days of activity to claim it. FanCash is redeemable for bonus bets (~73%) or Fanatics merch (near face value).